More notes from RootsCampDC...

 

Polling and young voters: Youngvoterstrategies.org

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Lake research partners worked with YVS in 2005 & 2006. Did three nationwide surveys:

1) April (63% wrong track; 64% Bush disapproval)

2) September (35% favorable Bush)

3) Weekend before election (61% wrong track; barely any change in favorable Bush; 60% Bush disapproval)

 

18-30 years old; eligible voters were surveyed

 

24% of young people voted in 2006; increase from 20% in 2002. 47% in 2004.

 

Want to draw comparison between midterms in 2002, 2006. Keep 2004 in mind because it was great for young voters and should be our goal.

 

13% of all voters in 2006; in 2002 11%.

 

This is important because:

1) Increased overall turnout as well as share of vote (YV go 60/40 for D) for two cycles straight. If a voter votes for a party three elections in a row, they are disproportionately inclined to vote for that party for the rest of their lives. We need to lock this generation in as Ds to prevent losing them in their 30s and maintain a majority party. Young Dems are really part of the Democratic base now. This generation will be 25% of the electorate in 10 years.

2) Trends have been down since 1998; uptick is important. It has been the only demographic trending down until now.

3) Particular states:

-Montana (Tester) primary as well as general. Tester was outspent and outorganized.. Campus organizing made huge difference. Won by 2700 votes. Made huge absentee ballot push. Tester didn’t win Election day; he won with absentee ballots. They smashed Burns in mailed ballots.

4) Need to focus on non-college graduates to build generational strength (Ds are strong among college students & graduates)

5) Whereas other age demographics showed fluctuation in opinion of Bush and right/wrong track, young people were consistent

6) Young people has less association with own Member than older demographics

 

Concerns:

1) The vote goes down by age. 18-19 year olds have 41 point advantage; 23-35 year old 11 point advantage, 26-30, 4 point advantage. D support decrease as people get older.

2) We’ve done a good job reaching 18-22 college age; we need to energize more of the older, but still young, voters

3) Self-ID R’s 78% plan to vote, 70% of D. If we were as likely to vote as R, that’s another 3 points.

4) Democratic Party favorable in September 61%, November 51%. Took hits though campaigns. Dems still have 10-point party ID advantage. Advantage gets smaller with age.

 

Demographic groups: Christians, people at clubs, kickball league, skate parks. Tried to tap into different communities and different definitions of community.

 

Issues:

1) Iraq(28%+ D)

2) Healthcare

3) College affordability (31%+D)

4) Homeland security (4%+R)

5) Immigration (2%+R)

6) Moral values (7%+R)

 

College affordability big in 2004. Strength of this issue in 2006 was that parents were starting to think about college affordability.

 

From April to November, no change on “change” message. Message for young people was “make them pay attention to us”.

 

 

 

Prop 107 in Arizona.

-7 of 8 states passed it.

-Arizona first to say no to ban on marriage equality

-Arizona is a 10 point R state. They passed English-only prop as well as minimum age increase. It was a real win.

-Won a lawsuit on the language of the ballot. Two extra lines explaining what yes vote and no vote mean. There’s no change in AZ if you vote no.

-Message strength in AZ:

1) Legal protections

2) Taking away legal protections

3) Started asking “why” questions; why taking these protections away. People did not think of good reasons. Companies, cities, etc, would have the protections they offer to unmarried couples prohibited.

-More intensity about voting yes; people are still weakly voting no.

-Took a 10-point deficit and turned it into 2-point hearing. Didn’t happen under the radar. People knew that the yes side was saying.

-We broaden support when we talk about all unmarried couples, but it lessens the progressive intensity.

-It was helpful to have Colorado civil unions measure. If you heard about the ban and then you heard civil unions voted for the ban & against unions. The other way around, the support for the ban decreased once they heard about civil unions.


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